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The International Monetary Fund improved its estimate of global economic growth for this year



Russia is expected to achieve economic growth despite the sanctions

The International Monetary Fund slightly upgraded its estimate of global economic growth for this year due to “surprisingly resilient” demand in the US and Europe, lower energy costs and the relaxation of anti-coronavirus measures in China.

In its updated report on the World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF found that in 2023 global growth will fall to 2.9 percent from 3.4 percent last year, but it is still a better forecast than in October, according to which this year’s growth would be 2.7 percent. The IMF also warned in October that the world could quickly slip into recession.

In 2024, global economic growth is expected to increase to 3.1 percent, which is a tenth of a percentage point lower than was announced in October.

Chief Economist of the IMF Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas he said that recession fears have subsided and that central banks are making progress in controlling inflation, but that further efforts are needed to limit price growth, and further escalations of the war in Ukraine and China’s fight against covid-19 could cause new problems.

The IMF predicts economic growth of 1.4 percent for the United States in 2023, while in October it predicted 1 percent for this country. In 2024, growth in the US is expected to be one percent. The IMF therefore does not expect a recession for the world’s largest economy. In 2022, it was two percent.

China’s economic growth is expected to be 5.2 percent this year, but it is expected to slow down to 4.5 percent in 2024. For last year, China’s growth is estimated at three percent, which is the first time in more than four decades that China’s growth is below the world average.

For Japan, the IMF expects economic growth of 1.8 percent this year, after which it is expected to slow down to 0.9 percent in 2024, as the effect of the government’s stimulus measures will be less.

In the euro area, growth is expected to be 0.7% this year, and 1.6% in 2024. In October, they predicted 0.5% growth for this year. In 2022, it was 3.5%.

German economic growth is expected to slow to 0.1 percent this year and 1.4 percent next year.

Among the major developed economies, according to the IMF, only the United Kingdom will be in recession. The country’s gross domestic product will shrink by 0.6 percent.

Russia is expected to achieve growth this year

Russia’s economy shrank last year by 3.4%, as the IMF initially expected, but the GDP fell by 2.2%. Russia is expected to achieve 0.3% growth this year, and 2.1% growth in 2024.

For so-called emerging markets and developing countries, the IMF predicts four percent growth this year, which is 0.3 percentage points better than in the previous forecast. Growth of 4.2% is expected for 2024, which is 0.1 percentage points worse than the previous forecast.

India’s growth is expected to shrink from last year’s 6.8 percent to 6.1 percent this year, and return to 6.8 percent in 2024.

The IMF predicts 1.8% growth for Latin America and the Caribbean this year, 3.2% growth for the Middle East and Central Asia, and 3.8% growth for Sub-Saharan Africa.

Source: Rtvslo

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