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Lula vs. Bolsonaro: A duel with an uncertain outcome in the midst of a divided Brazil

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Left-wing former president Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, won 48% of the vote against the far-right president, winning by 43%, but not a comfortable victory as polls predicted. Nowhere near that. Nor was it able to exceed the 50% required to avoid the second round on October 30th.

Brazil faces weeks of great political uncertainty after a first round that dashed poll predictions and robbed Lula of any chance of reaching the presidency without requiring a vote against Jair Bolsonaro. increase.

With a five-point advantage, the definition remains open and predicts weeks of intense and aggressive campaigning in a deeply divided country, analysts consulted by AFP agreed.

A major polling company was predicting a comfortable scenario for the left-wing leader, with an advantage of up to 14 points that would give him a chance of winning in the first round.

Instead, Sunday’s numbers corresponded to an “optimistic” scenario put forward by the 67-year-old Bolsonaro’s campaign team, leaving him a chance for re-election.

Lula vs Bolsonaro, ‘Open Ended’

“The end is open and on a level playing field. In key states, Bolsonaro will have stronger support than Lula,” said Leandro Consentino, a political scientist at the Inspar Institute.

Lula vs. Bolsonaro, duel with uncertain outcome in divided Brazil
EFE

He cites the case of Rio de Janeiro, where Bolsonaro-aligned governor Claudio Castro was reelected in the first round. São Paulo, where Bolsonaro’s former minister is a favorite, and Minas Gerais, won by a governor with an anti-Lula Workers’ Party (PT) profile.

Three southeastern states attract 40% of the electoral rolls.

Bolsonalism also intensified in Sunday’s parallel parliamentary and gubernatorial elections.

“will to change”

Bolsonaro acknowledged that “many votes” for Lula showed a “willingness to change on the part of the population”, particularly affected by price increases in basic basket products.

EFE

But he said it would show the economy was “recovering” and warned that changes “could get worse,” citing as an example the economic realities of other South American countries that have elected left-wing governments. rice field.

Lula, who had planned to celebrate her victory in the first round, admitted that she would have to fight for all the votes.

“We will have to travel more and have more public events and gatherings,” said the former president (2003-2010).

The left was spending its last days campaigning, seeking a “good” vote to overthrow the president in the first round.

But centre-left Ciro Gómez was merciless to both Lula and Bolsonaro, becoming “dehydrated” in the final stretch and finishing fourth with just 3%, and his votes “could help” Bolsonaro. Proven,” explained Consulting analyst Adriano Rauno. solid prospects.

Marco Antonio Teixeira, a political scientist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, said that if he expressed support for Lula or Bolsonaro, third-ranked senator Simone Tebet (4%) and Gómez would vote in the runoff “in the right role.” can be achieved.

Tebet promised to announce his position “at the right time” and Gomes asked for time to speak.

lack of suggestions

Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia, assessed that Lula’s campaign was “overly retrospective” and focused “only on the achievements of previous missions” (One Bee).

“One more discussion on the proposal was missing, presenting plans for the future,” he added.

Lula vs. Bolsonaro, duel with uncertain outcome in divided Brazil
EFE

During the campaign, Bolsonaro attacked without evidence the credibility of current electronic voting in Brazil and raised concerns about the attitude he adopts.

On Sunday, he declined to comment on the transparency of the process, saying he would wait for a position from the military without more clarity.

The president, who also questioned the legitimacy of the polls, asserted that he had broken the “lie” of the polls, but one of his key cabinet ministers called for a boycott to keep his supporters from reacting to the pollsters. .

Bolsonaro’s aggressive campaign against Lula

Bolsonaro has weathered the crisis with questionable management of the pandemic in particular and constant challenges to democratic institutions.

Having presided over Brazil during a period of strong growth and leaving government with enviable popularity, Lula returned to politics unable to shake off the stain of corruption, but his convictions in the “lava jato” scandal were procedurally challenged. Canceled for reason.

Released in 2019 after serving 19 months in prison, he has a following among popular classes, women and young people.

“The vote promises to be a hotly contested one. The president will increase and demonize PT rejection while investing in reducing his rejection among young people and women.” Calmon said.

“It’s going to be an aggressive, low-level campaign.” he added.

Source: Biobiochile

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