Illustration image of hurricane season. By: NOAA 2022
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast Thursday that the hurricane season will be “nearly normal,” with between 12 and 17 named storms.
Of these storms, 5 to 9 have the potential to become hurricanes (winds of 120 km/h or more), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (categories 3, 4, or 5, winds of 180 km/h). and above) are included.
NOAA said they have 70% confidence in these ranges.
“As the climate changes, the data and expertise that NOAA provides emergency managers to support decision-making before, during, and after a hurricane is critical,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. It’s more important than ever,” he said in a statement.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with NOAA giving a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of a above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. We estimate it to be 30%. number of events.
After three seasons of La Niña weather events, NOAA is predicting an El Niño this summer that could help curb hurricane activity.
But this is likely to be offset by more local hurricane-friendly conditions, such as the above-normal West African monsoon, which “produces the East African wave and causes some of the strongest and longest-lasting Atlantic storms.” There is
On the other hand, warmer-than-normal surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean add additional energy to storm development.
In 2022, Hurricane Ian devastated Florida, killing dozens and causing more than $100 billion in damage. It was the world’s most devastating weather disaster so far last year.
Overall, climate change is making hurricanes more powerful as they nourish warmer ocean surfaces, scientists say.